Note on Probabilistic Arguments for the Existence of God

Lech Gruszecki

doi:10.18290/rt.2015.62.9-1

Lech Gruszecki The John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Faculty of Social Science

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18290/rt.2015.62.9-1

Keywords: probability; Pascal's Wager; argument from design

Abstract

The article presents the theistic arguments for the existence of God that have been developed for the past 400 years and that use the concepts from probability theory. It focuses on: 1) the probabilistic version of the argument from design, and 2) Pascal's Wager. In order to present these two arguments rigorously, the so called probabilistic measures of rationality have been defined. The measures are based on the concepts of (classic) probability, conditional probability, and the expected value. These concepts have been applied to reconstruct the arguments in question. Additionally, the analytic form of the formulas defining rationality measures enables to discuss the substantive value of the arguments presented. Their weight of evidence depends to a great extent on the ontological, epistemological, and cultural assumptions that have been accepted either explicitly or implicitly. Pascal's Wager seems to be the most resistant to criticism. It also appeals to a wide range of people. Still, it is largely based on the accepted world view.

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