Przeobrażenia demograficzne w Polsce i na Ukrainie w okresie transformacji ustrojowej

Abstrakt

The paper seeks to compare the demographic situation in Poland with that which is in the Ukraine. The statistical analysis takes into consideration the last decade of the 20^th century, that is the period in which in both countries there were great socio-economical transformations. Before evaluating the ongoing process some demographic tendencies have been outlined, the tendencies that undergo now in Central-East Europe, the demographic dynamism during the last 50 years in Poland and the Ukraine has been shown. The evolution of demographic transformations during the communist regime was in both countries convergent, although the social transformations in the Ukraine were faster in the Ukraine than in Poland. The prognoses from the turn of the 1980s and 1990s did not predict any essential changes. It was expected that natural growth would stabilise at a (not high) level, a level that would gurantee small growth of population. It turned out, however, that political transformations had unexpectedly brought about demographic repercussions. The results of statistic analysis have proved that between 1990 and 2000 the rate of births in both countries was successively going down. At the same time the rate of deaths in the Ukraine considerably increased. This had resulted in a demographic regress in the Ukraine and the stabilisation of the rate of population in Poland. The number of population in the Ukraine had decreased by ca. 3.000.000 in the period between 1990 and 2000, whereas in Poland it became stable at 38.600.000 with a tendency to go down. The demographic tendencie revealed in the 1990s both in Poland and the Ukraine manifest permanence. Consequently, the hitherto prognoses with respect to the future have gone out of date. New trends of transformations show that the number of the population in the Ukraine will systematically go down. The demographic situation of Poland is more difficult to predict, but presumably it will reach the de-population stage and the people will grow old fast.