Non-Classical Probabilities for Decision Making in Situations of Uncertainty

Dominik Klein; Ondrej Majer; Soroush Rafiee Rad

doi:10.18290/rf20684-15

Dominik Klein Utrecht University, Department of Philosophy and Religious Studies, Holandia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7743-8399
Ondrej Majer Institute of Philosophy of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Czechy https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7243-1622
Soroush Rafiee Rad Bayreuth University, Department of Philosophy, Niemcy https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5338-902X

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18290/rf20684-15

Słowa kluczowe: rozumowania w sytuacji niepewności, nieklasyczne prawdopodobieństwo, teoria Dempstera-Shafera, logika Belnapa-Dunna

Abstrakt

Nieklasyczne prawdopodobieństwa na potrzeby podejmowania decyzji w sytuacjach niepewności

Analiza sytuacji, w których informacja jest częściowa, niepełna bądź niespójna wskazuje na potrzebę zbudowania jakościowych miar siły przekonań odmiennych niż te, które są oferowane przez klasyczną teorię prawdopodobieństwa. W niniejszej pracy porównujemy dwa ujęcia zaproponowane dla realizacji tej potrzeby: teorię Dempstera-Shafera i niestandardową teorię prawdopodobieństwa nabudowaną na logice Belnapa-Dunna. Pokazujemy, że te dwa formalizmy przyjmują ortogonalne perspektywy postrzegania niedostatków informacyjnych, a jednocześnie dostarczają rezultatów częściowo ze sobą korespondujących. Na koniec porównujemy różne dynamiczne reguły z obu formalizmów traktując je wszystkie jako uogólnienie warunkowania Bayesowskiego.

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