Non-Classical Probabilities for Decision Making in Situations of Uncertainty

Dominik Klein; Ondrej Majer; Soroush Rafiee Rad

doi:10.18290/rf20684-15

Dominik Klein Utrecht University, Department of Philosophy and Religious Studies, Netherlands https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7743-8399
Ondrej Majer Institute of Philosophy of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Republik https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7243-1622
Soroush Rafiee Rad Bayreuth University, Department of Philosophy, Germany https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5338-902X

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18290/rf20684-15

Keywords: reasoning under uncertinty, non-classcal probability, Dempster-Shafer theory, Belnap-Dunn logic

Abstract

Analyzing situations where information is partial, incomplete or contradictory has created a demand for quantitative belief measures that are weaker than classic probability theory. In this paper, we compare two frameworks that have been proposed for this task, Dempster-Shafer theory and non-standard probability theory based on Belnap-Dunn logic. We show the two frameworks to assume orthogonal perspectives on informational shortcomings, but also provide a partial correspondence result. Lastly, we also compare various dynamical rules of the two frameworks, all seen as generalizations of classic Bayes’ conditiong.

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