Problems with Probabilistic Thinking
Abstract
The paper outlines the development of the idea of probabilistic thinking in western culture and the discovery and development of research on probability. It quotes studies, which show that there might be cultural differences in tendencies to probabilistic thinking. Eventually, it discusses problems that people might have with probabilistic thinking. As research shows, our common sense thinking is in principle deterministic.
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Budzisz, M. (1998). Budżet 1998. Wyzwania i rezerwy. Warszawa: Biblioteka Interesu Publicznego Centrum im. Adama Smitha.
De Finetti, B. (1963). Forsight: its logical laws, its subjective sources. W: H. Kyburg, H. Smokler (red.), Studies in subjective probability. New York: Kieger.
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., Tversky, A. (1985). The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences. Cognitive Psychology, 17, 295-314.
Leibniz, G. W. (1955). Nowe rozważania dotyczące rozumu ludzkiego. T. II. Warszawa: PWN.
Lock, J. (1955). Rozważania dotyczące rozumu ludzkiego. T. II. Warszawa: PWN.
Marciszewski, W. (1972). Podstawy logicznej teorii przekonań. Warszawa: PWN.
Pascal, B. (wyd. III). Myśli. Warszawa: Instytut Wydawniczy PAX.
Phillips, L. D., Wright, G. N. (1977). Cultural differences in viewing uncertainty and assessing probabilities. W: H. Jungermann, G. De Zeeuw (red.), Decision making and change in human affairs (s. 507-519). Dordrecht: Reidel.
Ramsey, F. P. (1931). Truth and probability. W: Braitwaite (red.), The foundations of mathematics and other logical essays by Frank Plumpton Ramsey (s. 156-198). London: Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner & Co.
Savage, L. (1954). The foundations of Statisstics. New York: Wiley.
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1130.
Wright, G. N., Phillips, L. D. Whalley, P. C., Choo, G. T., Ng, K. O., Tan, I., Wisudha, A. (1978). Cultural differences in probabilistic thinking. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 9, 285-299.
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2019-03-26
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