Roczniki Kulturoznawcze

Some Reflections on the European Future in the Light of Population Projections

Marek Okólski — 2020-10-21

The present paper is based above all on the results of the United Nations’ population projection which was published in 2019. According to that publication until 2060 the population of Europe will decrease by 60 million. This is clearly a long-term tendency: between 1950 and 2100 the share of Europe in the world population may decline from 22% to 6%. Its principal reason seems to be a low level of fertility which does not allow for the replacement of subsequent generations. Another important consequence of enduring very low fertility is population ageing which manifests itself in a reversal of the ratio of the number of children to the number of the elderly to the benefit of the latter and a strong decline in the ratio of working-age population to the elderly.

In view of its shrinking population and fast ageing, Europe will be in the least favourable demographic situation of all continents. The most contrasting picture presents Africa where population will continue to be strongly increasing to reach 34% of world population in 2100 (11% in 1950) and the number of children will still be higher than the number of the elderly.

Demographic changes in Europe will display considerable regional differences. Western Europe will be in a relatively favourable situation with slightly increasing population size (mainly due to immigration) and a moderate pace of the ageing whereas southern and eastern parts of the continent will experience strong depopulation and fast pace of the ageing.

In the author’s view recent population projections do not adequately account for the migration potential of non-European areas, especially Africa, which stems from a vehement increase in the young (mobile) segment of working-age population. For it could be reasonably expected that a large part of that potential will attempt emigration, most likely to Europe. This, in turn, may result in a significant rise in the share of Muslims in the population of a majority of European countries and bring about tensions in the intercultural relations difficult to cope.

In the Face of the End of Europe We Know

Krystyna Romaniszyn — 2020-10-21

The paper aims at discussing the issue of mass migrations as the coefficient of European societies and civilization change. The papers draws upon the statistical data regarding global migration, in particular the inflows into Europe from the South. It focuses on the following issues: the volume of inflows into Europe; the push-pull agents; the socio-cultural determinants of migration; possible socio-cultural consequences of the mass immigration to Europe and its political context.

Integration and Intercultural Relations in the Past and in the Future: A Philosophy of Migration

Marcin Rebes — 2020-10-21

In this article is presented the problem of integration in European culture. The integration process is an important element of European culture. It appears at the beginning when this culture arose as a result of taking over some elements of other cultures in its development. Contemporary integration refers to the eighteenth-century formation of nation-states and confrontation with universal values. Attitude towards other cultures and European identity refers to such values as common good, freedom or responsibility. As the philosophy of the twentieth century shows, an important element has become the relationship between me and another, the interlocutor. The experiences of values constitute between us. Through this lens, we can observe the problem of migration, which is based on the fight for human rights. It is around her that European identity is created. These interpersonal relationships reveal the meaning and sense of migration, which for Europe are inspirations for deeper integration.

Impact of Unbalanced Population Growth in the Southern Neighborhood of Europe on the Occurrence of Internal and Regional Conflicts

Witold Repetowicz — 2020-10-21

The population growth in Middle East and Africa is not only much bigger than in Europe but also regionally unbalanced. This means that the proportions of this macroregion population with regard to the various states as well as ethnic, tribal and religious groups are in the process of a significant change and it will be continued in the nearest decades. As population is a fundamental element of the states power it will have not only internal consequences but also geopolitical impact. Rapid population growth on one hand may weaken and destabilize some states if its governments will not be able to properly manage it, especially with regard to employment. But population may also be used to project power in regional rivalry, threaten other states with migration flow as well as to challenge other countries militarily. The impact of unbalanced population growth in Middle East on regional stability and security do not seems very optimistic. Most probably it will lead to new regional competition along sectarian and ethnic lines and geopolitical rivalry among the states of this region. The population growth of two of the three countries with biggest population in this region, namely Turkey and Iran, is quickly declining. This is important also because these countries aspire to the role of regional powers. On other hand the country with the biggest population growth in Middle East is Iraq that is widely considered a weak if not failed state. Unsolved ethnic problems, especially Kurdish and Palestinian issue, will add up to the uncertainty of stability and probability of escalation of old conflicts, especially as the population growth among these ethnic groups is higher then average in the region. In Africa unbalanced population growth may cause tribal conflicts. Proximity of Europe and high probability of migration from conflict zones makes the issue of unbalanced population growth and its consequences in Middle East and Africa a challenge also for European stability and security

Brad S. Gregory. Rebel in the Ranks: Martin Luther, the Reformation, and the Conflicts That Continue to Shape Our World

Jude P. Dougherty — 2020-10-21